Projection · PPR
138.5
90–187 range
ADP (consensus)
58
as of Jul 17
Confidence
31%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 165.1 | 10.3 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 138.5 | 8.1 |
How we got there (v2)
8.40
PPG (aged)
16.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
138.5
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 9.88 PPG; age curve adjusts to 8.40.