Projection · PPR
139.3
90–188 range
ADP (consensus)
88
as of Jun 2
Confidence
31%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 186.4 | 11.7 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 139.3 | 8.2 |
How we got there (v2)
8.44
PPG (aged)
16.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
139.3
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 9.93 PPG; age curve adjusts to 8.44.