Projection · PPR
157.8
102–214 range
ADP (consensus)
89
as of Jul 17
Confidence
31%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 186.4 | 11.7 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 157.8 | 9.3 |
How we got there (v2)
9.57
PPG (aged)
16.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
157.8
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 11.25 PPG; age curve adjusts to 9.57.