Projection · PPR
82.7
54–112 range
ADP (consensus)
273
as of Jul 17
Confidence
31%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 91.7 | 5.7 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 82.7 | 4.9 |
How we got there (v2)
5.01
PPG (aged)
16.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
82.7
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 5.90 PPG; age curve adjusts to 5.01.