Projection · PPR
184.2
117–252 range
ADP (consensus)
172
as of Jul 17
Confidence
22%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025partial | 11 | 158.0 | 14.4 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 184.2 | 10.8 |
How we got there (v2)
13.43
PPG (aged)
13.7
Expected games
1.00
Team context
184.2
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 14.14 PPG; age curve adjusts to 13.43.