Projection · PPR
28.9
19–39 range
ADP (consensus)
326
as of Jul 17
Confidence
31%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 24.8 | 1.6 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 28.9 | 1.7 |
How we got there (v2)
1.75
PPG (aged)
16.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
28.9
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 1.85 PPG; age curve adjusts to 1.75.