Projection · PPR
188.1
122–254 range
ADP (consensus)
32
as of Jul 17
Confidence
33%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 213.4 | 12.6 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 188.1 | 11.1 |
How we got there (v2)
11.06
PPG (aged)
17.0
Expected games
1.00
Team context
188.1
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 12.29 PPG; age curve adjusts to 11.06.