Projection · PPR
59.5
37–82 range
ADP (consensus)
316
as of Jul 17
Confidence
16%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025partial | 8 | 65.1 | 8.1 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 59.5 | 3.5 |
How we got there (v2)
4.85
PPG (aged)
12.3
Expected games
1.00
Team context
59.5
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 1 season (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 5.39 PPG; age curve adjusts to 4.85.