Projection · PPR
281.1
197–365 range
ADP (consensus)
138
as of Jun 2
Confidence
67%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | 317.2 | 18.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | 304.8 | 17.9 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 281.1 | 16.5 |
How we got there (v2)
16.54
PPG (aged)
17.0
Expected games
1.00
Team context
281.1
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 2 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 17.41 PPG; age curve adjusts to 16.54.