Projection · PPR
61.3
43–79 range
ADP (consensus)
325
as of Jul 17
Confidence
71%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023partial | 11 | 73.3 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | 54.7 | 4.2 |
| 2025partial | 12 | 58.3 | 4.9 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 61.3 | 3.6 |
How we got there (v2)
5.11
PPG (aged)
12.0
Expected games
1.00
Team context
61.3
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 5.38 PPG; age curve adjusts to 5.11.