Projection · PPR
197.8
145–250 range
ADP (consensus)
243
as of Jul 17
Confidence
90%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 156.4 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | 195.0 | 13.9 |
| 2025 | 16 | 218.0 | 13.6 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 197.8 | 11.6 |
How we got there (v2)
12.41
PPG (aged)
15.9
Expected games
1.00
Team context
197.8
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 13.06 PPG; age curve adjusts to 12.41.