Projection · PPR
228.3
164–293 range
ADP (consensus)
117
as of Jul 17
Confidence
78%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022partial | 9 | 106.3 | 11.8 |
| 2023 | 16 | 295.6 | 18.5 |
| 2024 | 15 | 266.9 | 17.8 |
| 2025partial | 9 | 177.4 | 19.7 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 228.3 | 13.4 |
How we got there (v2)
16.88
PPG (aged)
13.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
228.3
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 17.77 PPG; age curve adjusts to 16.88.