Projection · PPR
184.2
134–234 range
ADP (consensus)
65
as of Jul 17
Confidence
86%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022partial | 6 | 15.1 | 2.5 |
| 2023partial | 12 | 80.3 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 212.2 | 14.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | 219.9 | 12.9 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 184.2 | 10.8 |
How we got there (v2)
11.56
PPG (aged)
15.9
Expected games
1.00
Team context
184.2
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 11.92 PPG; age curve adjusts to 11.56.