Projection · PPR
200.2
148–252 range
ADP (consensus)
122
as of Jul 17
Confidence
94%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022partial | 6 | 51.6 | 8.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | 133.2 | 8.9 |
| 2024 | 17 | 182.7 | 10.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | 217.9 | 13.6 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 200.2 | 11.8 |
How we got there (v2)
12.21
PPG (aged)
16.4
Expected games
1.00
Team context
200.2
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 12.59 PPG; age curve adjusts to 12.21.