Projection · PPR
162.3
117–208 range
ADP (consensus)
105
as of Jul 17
Confidence
80%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 249.1 | 14.7 |
| 2023partial | 12 | 145.7 | 12.1 |
| 2024 | 15 | 175.9 | 11.7 |
| 2025 | 14 | 178.8 | 12.8 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 162.3 | 9.5 |
How we got there (v2)
11.20
PPG (aged)
14.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
162.3
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 11.79 PPG; age curve adjusts to 11.20.