Projection · PPR
168.3
124–212 range
ADP (consensus)
87
as of Jul 17
Confidence
92%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14 | 89.7 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | 17 | 182.5 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 241.6 | 16.1 |
| 2025 | 15 | 125.4 | 8.4 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 168.3 | 9.9 |
How we got there (v2)
10.89
PPG (aged)
15.5
Expected games
1.00
Team context
168.3
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 11.46 PPG; age curve adjusts to 10.89.