Projection · PPR
258.4
186–331 range
ADP (consensus)
8
as of Jul 17
Confidence
80%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022partial | 11 | 146.4 | 13.3 |
| 2023partial | 10 | 156.4 | 15.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | 244.7 | 17.5 |
| 2025 | 17 | 362.3 | 21.3 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 258.4 | 15.2 |
How we got there (v2)
17.23
PPG (aged)
15.0
Expected games
1.00
Team context
258.4
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 18.13 PPG; age curve adjusts to 17.23.