Projection · PPR
142.3
104–180 range
ADP (consensus)
79
as of Jul 17
Confidence
88%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 177.7 | 11.1 |
| 2023 | 14 | 207.2 | 14.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | 221.7 | 15.8 |
| 2025 | 17 | 166.9 | 9.8 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 142.3 | 8.4 |
How we got there (v2)
9.56
PPG (aged)
14.9
Expected games
1.00
Team context
142.3
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 11.25 PPG; age curve adjusts to 9.56.