Projection · PPR
178.8
132–226 range
ADP (consensus)
258
as of Jul 17
Confidence
90%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13 | 168.4 | 13.0 |
| 2023 | 15 | 243.7 | 16.2 |
| 2024 | 15 | 155.6 | 10.4 |
| 2025 | 16 | 188.2 | 11.8 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 178.8 | 10.5 |
How we got there (v2)
11.40
PPG (aged)
15.7
Expected games
1.00
Team context
178.8
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 12.00 PPG; age curve adjusts to 11.40.