Projection · PPR
101.4
73–130 range
ADP (consensus)
110
as of Jul 17
Confidence
78%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 248.6 | 14.6 |
| 2023partial | 11 | 134.9 | 12.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | 241.6 | 14.2 |
| 2025partial | 12 | 118.7 | 9.9 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 101.4 | 6.0 |
How we got there (v2)
9.12
PPG (aged)
11.1
Expected games
1.00
Team context
101.4
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 13.03 PPG; age curve adjusts to 9.12.