Projection · PPR
173.2
125–221 range
ADP (consensus)
123
as of Jul 17
Confidence
82%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 200.5 | 13.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | 203.2 | 12.7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 236.6 | 15.8 |
| 2025partial | 11 | 161.5 | 14.7 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 173.2 | 10.2 |
How we got there (v2)
12.73
PPG (aged)
13.6
Expected games
1.00
Team context
173.2
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 13.69 PPG; age curve adjusts to 12.73.