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Patrick Mahomes

Age 309 yr expv4.0
Projection · PPR
298.7
220–378 range
ADP (consensus)
142
as of Jul 17
Confidence
90%
model self-rated

Recent seasons (PPR points)

dashed = projection
417280283286299
SeasonGamesPointsPPG
202217417.424.6
202316280.217.5
202416283.017.7
202514285.720.4
2026projected17298.717.6
How we got there (v2)
19.07
PPG (aged)
15.7
Expected games
1.00
Team context
298.7
Projection

Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware).