Projection · PPR
177.4
126–229 range
ADP (consensus)
297
as of Jul 17
Confidence
73%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 341.2 | 20.1 |
| 2023 | 16 | 376.4 | 23.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | 218.2 | 12.8 |
| 2025partial | 4 | 53.5 | 13.4 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 177.4 | 10.4 |
How we got there (v2)
15.20
PPG (aged)
11.7
Expected games
1.00
Team context
177.4
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 16.00 PPG; age curve adjusts to 15.20.