Projection · PPR
173.4
125–221 range
ADP (consensus)
216
as of Jul 17
Confidence
82%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 316.6 | 19.8 |
| 2023 | 17 | 273.8 | 16.1 |
| 2024partial | 8 | 121.9 | 15.2 |
| 2025 | 17 | 210.3 | 12.4 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 173.4 | 10.2 |
How we got there (v2)
12.13
PPG (aged)
14.3
Expected games
1.00
Team context
173.4
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 13.79 PPG; age curve adjusts to 12.13.