Projection · PPR
157.3
117–198 range
ADP (consensus)
119
as of Jul 17
Confidence
94%
model self-rated
Recent seasons (PPR points)
dashed = projection| Season | Games | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 316.3 | 18.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | 219.4 | 14.6 |
| 2024 | 16 | 195.4 | 12.2 |
| 2025 | 17 | 193.2 | 11.4 |
| 2026projected | 17 | 157.3 | 9.3 |
How we got there (v2)
10.57
PPG (aged)
14.9
Expected games
1.00
Team context
157.3
Projection
Per-game pace shrunk via empirical Bayes from the last 3 seasons (recency-weighted, sample-size-aware). Pre-age-curve pace was 12.74 PPG; age curve adjusts to 10.57.